Post by Kipkoech on Dec 2, 2005 23:00:46 GMT 3
Time to snap out of referendum trance
By Kipkoech Komugor
IT is not difficult to figure out why the Orange Democratic Movement is being hard-nosed in dealing with President Mwai Kibaki as the latter tries to resuscitate his political fortunes following the referendum debacle. Politics is not unlike the business of trying to make a baby. That crucial period comes only once a month and if you squander the chance, you will have to wait for the circle to come around.
To the ODM, this is the moment and they hate to let it go to waste. The referendum (where they emerged victorious with a whopping one million-vote margin) has clearly shown where the balance of power is. The mood of the country is so feverishly Orange that if somebody climbed on top of a makeshift podium and yelled: “Si ata mzee Ndolo anatosha”, the crowd would be ecstatic in absolute agreement. Anybody who would try to think otherwise (including the big boys and girls on the high table) would be jeered into political wilderness.
The ODM euphoria is right now where the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) was just before the 2002 General Election. The movement has begun to acquire a life of its own. It is almost at the point where the personalities who act on the show are getting blurred as the audience focus more on the stage. The ODM fans are beginning to see it as a Movement of salvation from of the yolk of poverty, disease, corruption, ethnicity and other ills that rule these shores.
Any ODM leading light who for some reason may choose to chicken out is likely to be forgotten the way Musalia Mudavadi was when he yielded to pressure and left the Rainbow Coalition juts a few weeks to the elections.
This kind of political ecstasy, though, like a biological fertile period, is highly perishable. When the heat is gone, it takes time before a similar euphoria is whipped up. Historical examples to learn from abound. Had the multiparty election of 1992 been held earlier when the FORD euphoria was at fever pitch, Kanu would have been run out of power like nobody’s business.
But the period from November 1991 (when election 2 (a) of the Constitution was repealed) to December 1992 (When the first election was held) was long enough for the original fire to cool down. The result was the splitting of the formidable party into two factions, Ford-Asili and Ford-Kenya. It also afforded time for other third and fourth forces like the Mwai Kibaki’s Democratic Party and Johnston Makau’s SDP to form with the effect of dividing the Opposition further into a group miserable midgets trying to stand up to a terrible giant.
It is the fear of losing the steam and the momentum they have been gathering for the last three months that makes the ODM demand a snap election. In the event that elections were called in the next three months, the movement stands a big chance of taking over power. The current palpable public mood would allow them to pick any candidate for president and that person would go ahead to win the election without having to try too hard.
The fear of doing a Musalia would prevent many a disappointed hopeful who had all along believed that the post was his or hers for the taking from storming out of the Movement to run solo for the presidency ala Simeon Nyachae. There is also the nightmarish likelihood that one may leave the movement but fail to get his community, or whatever support base he may think he has, following him in his wake. It is for this reason (that a win is almost a foregone conclusion) that ODM is spoiling for a snap election. But perhaps the ODM should re-consider their hard-line stance. Following the Narc disaster we should now be the wiser. With the benefit of hindsight we now know that a hurriedly cobbled up coalition with just the believe in human kindness as the string holding it together may not be the smartest things to do.
Kenyans have had to endure three years of bickering in government that culminated in massive fallout at the just concluded referendum. Reason? Because the partners in the coalition sensationally signed a semblance of an MoU that could easily be discarded like used toilet paper. I would rather stick with this administration than go to elections in January or February next year and spend the next five years hoping and praying that the government would just stop fighting and get on with the business of delivering.
What would make an ODM coalition even worse is its sheer size, the infinite number of interests and the obvious strong headedness (and matching political strengths) of most of the big shots in the Movement. It is agreed that the ODM has the richest pool of presidential material and you can bet the voters are spoilt for a choice.
A scenario where one of the ODM luminaries wins the presidency with the blessing of the rest but fails to honour the pre-election pact because it was shoddily done and can be ignored at will doesn’t sound very good. This could see a situation where the government could be kicked out of office in less than a year because the combined strengths of the jilted would easily overcome the president’s side.
What the ODM need to do before thinking of elections are proper structures that can help them strike meaningful deals that will ensure that they can remain together for five years after winning elections. A starting point would be to relentlessly fight for a new constitutional dispensation.
They need a constitution that will force them to deal fairly with each other and avoid another Narc mistake. Narc was formed with a new Constitution in mind. ODM must not repeat the same mistake. They must form a coalition on the basis of a real not hoped for Constitution. They should share among themselves tangible not phantom posts.
The movement must not be so blindly focused on elections that they forget that the crowds that follow them faithfully don’t demand elections just for the kick of it. Kenyans want elections in the hope that from a new dispensation their circumstances might change for the better. That was the dream that Kenyans had in 2002 when they elected Narc to power. Three years of seesawing by the coalition partners in a battle of strengths has ensured that pretty little has been achieved towards improving the common man’s life. Is that what ODM wants to give Kenyans in return of their support? How I wish they would snap out of the referendum trance and start planning properly for the next elections in two years time.
kkomugor@yahoo.com
By Kipkoech Komugor
IT is not difficult to figure out why the Orange Democratic Movement is being hard-nosed in dealing with President Mwai Kibaki as the latter tries to resuscitate his political fortunes following the referendum debacle. Politics is not unlike the business of trying to make a baby. That crucial period comes only once a month and if you squander the chance, you will have to wait for the circle to come around.
To the ODM, this is the moment and they hate to let it go to waste. The referendum (where they emerged victorious with a whopping one million-vote margin) has clearly shown where the balance of power is. The mood of the country is so feverishly Orange that if somebody climbed on top of a makeshift podium and yelled: “Si ata mzee Ndolo anatosha”, the crowd would be ecstatic in absolute agreement. Anybody who would try to think otherwise (including the big boys and girls on the high table) would be jeered into political wilderness.
The ODM euphoria is right now where the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) was just before the 2002 General Election. The movement has begun to acquire a life of its own. It is almost at the point where the personalities who act on the show are getting blurred as the audience focus more on the stage. The ODM fans are beginning to see it as a Movement of salvation from of the yolk of poverty, disease, corruption, ethnicity and other ills that rule these shores.
Any ODM leading light who for some reason may choose to chicken out is likely to be forgotten the way Musalia Mudavadi was when he yielded to pressure and left the Rainbow Coalition juts a few weeks to the elections.
This kind of political ecstasy, though, like a biological fertile period, is highly perishable. When the heat is gone, it takes time before a similar euphoria is whipped up. Historical examples to learn from abound. Had the multiparty election of 1992 been held earlier when the FORD euphoria was at fever pitch, Kanu would have been run out of power like nobody’s business.
But the period from November 1991 (when election 2 (a) of the Constitution was repealed) to December 1992 (When the first election was held) was long enough for the original fire to cool down. The result was the splitting of the formidable party into two factions, Ford-Asili and Ford-Kenya. It also afforded time for other third and fourth forces like the Mwai Kibaki’s Democratic Party and Johnston Makau’s SDP to form with the effect of dividing the Opposition further into a group miserable midgets trying to stand up to a terrible giant.
It is the fear of losing the steam and the momentum they have been gathering for the last three months that makes the ODM demand a snap election. In the event that elections were called in the next three months, the movement stands a big chance of taking over power. The current palpable public mood would allow them to pick any candidate for president and that person would go ahead to win the election without having to try too hard.
The fear of doing a Musalia would prevent many a disappointed hopeful who had all along believed that the post was his or hers for the taking from storming out of the Movement to run solo for the presidency ala Simeon Nyachae. There is also the nightmarish likelihood that one may leave the movement but fail to get his community, or whatever support base he may think he has, following him in his wake. It is for this reason (that a win is almost a foregone conclusion) that ODM is spoiling for a snap election. But perhaps the ODM should re-consider their hard-line stance. Following the Narc disaster we should now be the wiser. With the benefit of hindsight we now know that a hurriedly cobbled up coalition with just the believe in human kindness as the string holding it together may not be the smartest things to do.
Kenyans have had to endure three years of bickering in government that culminated in massive fallout at the just concluded referendum. Reason? Because the partners in the coalition sensationally signed a semblance of an MoU that could easily be discarded like used toilet paper. I would rather stick with this administration than go to elections in January or February next year and spend the next five years hoping and praying that the government would just stop fighting and get on with the business of delivering.
What would make an ODM coalition even worse is its sheer size, the infinite number of interests and the obvious strong headedness (and matching political strengths) of most of the big shots in the Movement. It is agreed that the ODM has the richest pool of presidential material and you can bet the voters are spoilt for a choice.
A scenario where one of the ODM luminaries wins the presidency with the blessing of the rest but fails to honour the pre-election pact because it was shoddily done and can be ignored at will doesn’t sound very good. This could see a situation where the government could be kicked out of office in less than a year because the combined strengths of the jilted would easily overcome the president’s side.
What the ODM need to do before thinking of elections are proper structures that can help them strike meaningful deals that will ensure that they can remain together for five years after winning elections. A starting point would be to relentlessly fight for a new constitutional dispensation.
They need a constitution that will force them to deal fairly with each other and avoid another Narc mistake. Narc was formed with a new Constitution in mind. ODM must not repeat the same mistake. They must form a coalition on the basis of a real not hoped for Constitution. They should share among themselves tangible not phantom posts.
The movement must not be so blindly focused on elections that they forget that the crowds that follow them faithfully don’t demand elections just for the kick of it. Kenyans want elections in the hope that from a new dispensation their circumstances might change for the better. That was the dream that Kenyans had in 2002 when they elected Narc to power. Three years of seesawing by the coalition partners in a battle of strengths has ensured that pretty little has been achieved towards improving the common man’s life. Is that what ODM wants to give Kenyans in return of their support? How I wish they would snap out of the referendum trance and start planning properly for the next elections in two years time.
kkomugor@yahoo.com