Post by Editor on Jun 17, 2007 22:46:00 GMT 3
"Elders: Kalonzo ODM-K’s best bet against Kibaki
Story by DAVID MUGONYI and JEFF OTIENO
Publication Date: 6/17/2007
Mwingi North MP Kalonzo Musyoka is the Orange Democratic Party’s best chance of beating President Mwai Kibaki in elections later this year, according to a committee appointed to help ODM nominate its presidential candidate.
ODM-Kenya presidential aspirants parade at a past function. Photo/FILE
The 22-member Council of Elders, which on May 21 was given the job of helping the coalition settle on one person to face Mr Kibaki, conducted an analysis of national voting patterns that led them to name Mr Musyoka as the best candidate.
The council also believes Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Lang’ata MP Raila Odinga could defeat Mr Kibaki but ranks them second and third respectively after Mr Musyoka. The margins among the three is small.
The council’s conclusions are contained in a secret report to be presented to the party’s presidential aspirants on Thursday. The contents are suggestions and, neither the party nor the aspirants, are under any obligation to accept them.
The document, “Orange Democratic Party-Kenya: Strategic Nomination of the Presidential Candidate” and dated May 27, argues that Mr Musyoka would get 3,859,649 votes, or 53.4 per cent of the ballots cast.
The other six aspirants, including Mr Musalia Mudavadi and Leader of Official Opposition Uhuru Kenyatta, are in the category of those the Council believes to be incapable of beating Mr Kibaki, even with ODM behind them. The remaining aspirants are Najib Balala, Julia Ojiambo, Joseph Nyagah and Nazlin Umar.
Mr Ruto would defeat President Kibaki by 110,521 votes by garnering 3,669,915 votes representing 50.8 per cent of the ballots cast, the report says.
According to the Council of Elders, Mr Odinga would beat President Kibaki by 66,141 votes, garnering 3,647,725 votes and taking 50.5 per cent of the total votes cast.
The vote estimates are drawn from voter turnouts in elections in 1992, 1997 and 2002. The analysis is based on the assumption that those who voted against the proposed constitution in the 1995 referendum would also vote for the ODM presidental candidate.
The analysis is used to predict voter turnout in elections later this year and probable votes from regions that are considered ODM-K strongholds.
The report expresses concern at the probable margin of victory, only 412,763 votes, and proposes measures to increase the margin to 723,000. These include raising voter turnout in Nyanza Province by 10 per cent to 64 per cent and in Eastern by a similar margin to 67 per cent.
“The margins are so thin that ODM-K can only win the elections if the leaders remain united and with a strong team spirit go out and campaign, raise voter turnouts in their respective areas and be vigilant to stop rigging in opponent dominated areas,” the Council said in the report.
The Council, chaired by Westlands MP Fred Gumo, argues that if certain aspirants are picked to face President Kibaki, voter turnout would rise. Mr Musyoka and Mr Odinga top this category with voter turnouts in their regions rising to 75 per cent. Mr Ruto and Mr Mudavadi follow with 70 per cent of the turnout.
The report predicts that slightly more than seven million Kenyans will cast their votes from among the 12.6 million currently registered. However, it did not take into consideration ongoing voter registration.
The report states: “The opponent is the incumbent and, as the saying goes, ‘to beat a champion, you have to whip him properly because judges tend to be biased in his favour’”.
It argues that since President Kibaki was already using State resources, development projects and appointments in his favour, ODM-K would require a victory margin of more than 10 per cent of the votes expected to be cast, or 723,000 votes.
“ODM-K can win the elections if the party conducts a strategic nomination of a presidential candidate who would at least deliver 3,821,036 votes to beat Mr Kibaki by at least 412, 763,” says the report.
The report adds: “Not all the ODM-K aspirants have the same chance against Mr Kibaki. It must, therefore, never be assumed that any ODM-K candidate can beat Mr Kibaki at the elections.”
The Council argues that voter responses to different candidates could vary and may not exactly reflect ODM-K nominations by delegates. “The stakes are so high and the prize too precious to be left to chance, hence the proposal for strategic nomination,” its report says. The elders describe Mr Odinga’s declaration that Kibaki tosha (Kibaki is able) in 2002 as a strategic nomination. The Othaya MP was picked because he could split the GEMA (Gikuyu Embu Meru Association) votes with Mr Kenyatta and also get the rest of the country behind him.
Equally, Mr Musyoka could split the Eastern votes and also get the rest of the other communities behind him if ODM-K remained united, the Council believes.
“The strategic nominee would be a candidate who objectively appears to be able to garner the largest votes against Mr Kibaki and not just against other ODM-K aspirants, ” the report says.
The Council, whose 20 members are veteran MPs from all eight provinces, argues that since Orange got 3,628,193 votes in the November 2005 constitutional referendum against Banana’s 2,452,497 votes, a difference of 1,175,696 votes, the party could still get a similar margin with “proper strategy, unity and campaign”.
In order to guarantee victory, the report says the candidate nominated should:
Influence higher voter turnouts in his area.
Be able to take votes away from President Kibaki in any of his support areas in predictable numbers that would increase the ODM-K lead from the 412,763 votes expected to 723,000 votes. if possible."
Story by DAVID MUGONYI and JEFF OTIENO
Publication Date: 6/17/2007
Mwingi North MP Kalonzo Musyoka is the Orange Democratic Party’s best chance of beating President Mwai Kibaki in elections later this year, according to a committee appointed to help ODM nominate its presidential candidate.
ODM-Kenya presidential aspirants parade at a past function. Photo/FILE
The 22-member Council of Elders, which on May 21 was given the job of helping the coalition settle on one person to face Mr Kibaki, conducted an analysis of national voting patterns that led them to name Mr Musyoka as the best candidate.
The council also believes Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Lang’ata MP Raila Odinga could defeat Mr Kibaki but ranks them second and third respectively after Mr Musyoka. The margins among the three is small.
The council’s conclusions are contained in a secret report to be presented to the party’s presidential aspirants on Thursday. The contents are suggestions and, neither the party nor the aspirants, are under any obligation to accept them.
The document, “Orange Democratic Party-Kenya: Strategic Nomination of the Presidential Candidate” and dated May 27, argues that Mr Musyoka would get 3,859,649 votes, or 53.4 per cent of the ballots cast.
The other six aspirants, including Mr Musalia Mudavadi and Leader of Official Opposition Uhuru Kenyatta, are in the category of those the Council believes to be incapable of beating Mr Kibaki, even with ODM behind them. The remaining aspirants are Najib Balala, Julia Ojiambo, Joseph Nyagah and Nazlin Umar.
Mr Ruto would defeat President Kibaki by 110,521 votes by garnering 3,669,915 votes representing 50.8 per cent of the ballots cast, the report says.
According to the Council of Elders, Mr Odinga would beat President Kibaki by 66,141 votes, garnering 3,647,725 votes and taking 50.5 per cent of the total votes cast.
The vote estimates are drawn from voter turnouts in elections in 1992, 1997 and 2002. The analysis is based on the assumption that those who voted against the proposed constitution in the 1995 referendum would also vote for the ODM presidental candidate.
The analysis is used to predict voter turnout in elections later this year and probable votes from regions that are considered ODM-K strongholds.
The report expresses concern at the probable margin of victory, only 412,763 votes, and proposes measures to increase the margin to 723,000. These include raising voter turnout in Nyanza Province by 10 per cent to 64 per cent and in Eastern by a similar margin to 67 per cent.
“The margins are so thin that ODM-K can only win the elections if the leaders remain united and with a strong team spirit go out and campaign, raise voter turnouts in their respective areas and be vigilant to stop rigging in opponent dominated areas,” the Council said in the report.
The Council, chaired by Westlands MP Fred Gumo, argues that if certain aspirants are picked to face President Kibaki, voter turnout would rise. Mr Musyoka and Mr Odinga top this category with voter turnouts in their regions rising to 75 per cent. Mr Ruto and Mr Mudavadi follow with 70 per cent of the turnout.
The report predicts that slightly more than seven million Kenyans will cast their votes from among the 12.6 million currently registered. However, it did not take into consideration ongoing voter registration.
The report states: “The opponent is the incumbent and, as the saying goes, ‘to beat a champion, you have to whip him properly because judges tend to be biased in his favour’”.
It argues that since President Kibaki was already using State resources, development projects and appointments in his favour, ODM-K would require a victory margin of more than 10 per cent of the votes expected to be cast, or 723,000 votes.
“ODM-K can win the elections if the party conducts a strategic nomination of a presidential candidate who would at least deliver 3,821,036 votes to beat Mr Kibaki by at least 412, 763,” says the report.
The report adds: “Not all the ODM-K aspirants have the same chance against Mr Kibaki. It must, therefore, never be assumed that any ODM-K candidate can beat Mr Kibaki at the elections.”
The Council argues that voter responses to different candidates could vary and may not exactly reflect ODM-K nominations by delegates. “The stakes are so high and the prize too precious to be left to chance, hence the proposal for strategic nomination,” its report says. The elders describe Mr Odinga’s declaration that Kibaki tosha (Kibaki is able) in 2002 as a strategic nomination. The Othaya MP was picked because he could split the GEMA (Gikuyu Embu Meru Association) votes with Mr Kenyatta and also get the rest of the country behind him.
Equally, Mr Musyoka could split the Eastern votes and also get the rest of the other communities behind him if ODM-K remained united, the Council believes.
“The strategic nominee would be a candidate who objectively appears to be able to garner the largest votes against Mr Kibaki and not just against other ODM-K aspirants, ” the report says.
The Council, whose 20 members are veteran MPs from all eight provinces, argues that since Orange got 3,628,193 votes in the November 2005 constitutional referendum against Banana’s 2,452,497 votes, a difference of 1,175,696 votes, the party could still get a similar margin with “proper strategy, unity and campaign”.
In order to guarantee victory, the report says the candidate nominated should:
Influence higher voter turnouts in his area.
Be able to take votes away from President Kibaki in any of his support areas in predictable numbers that would increase the ODM-K lead from the 412,763 votes expected to 723,000 votes. if possible."