Post by KAMAU on Nov 23, 2005 8:38:27 GMT 3
New political realities for Kibaki
By MBOTHU KAMAU
FINALLY Kenyans have officially rejected the Wako draft constitution and opened new frontiers in the country’s political landscape as President Mwai Kibaki and his men absorb the shock from the referendum.
Results from the Monday poll are a loud political statement to the to the president that apart from his native Gikuyu, Meru and Embu communities (GEMA), the rest of Kenya at best has only tepid confidence in him and his government.
His Vice President Moody Awori indicated five months ago that a No victory at the plebiscite would mean lack of confidence in the Head of State and his government. The voters rejected the draft in total and vanquished Awori in his Funyula constituency and other key ministers including Simeon Nyachae, Professor George Saitoti, Kipruto Kirwa, Charity Ngilu, Chirau Ali Makwere, Raphael Tuju, Joseph Munyao, Newton Kulundu and Morris Dzoro.
If true democracy had fully taken root in this country, President Kibaki would have sought fresh mandate from the electorate in the light of the outcome from the poll.
The leading luminaries in the Orange team commanded their respective provinces except the Official Opposition leader Uhuru Kenyatta who however staged a strong showing in his Gatundu South constituency losing by a mere three thousand votes to the Yes team.
From the poll, Roads minister Raila Odinga emerged the undisputed overall winner in Nairobi and Nyanza for Orange, former Vice President Musalia Mudavadi delivered a good chunk of Western, Najib Balala did the same for Coast, William Ruto emerged tops in Rift Valley while Kalonzo Musyoka eclipsed Ngilu in Ukambani.
Ironically, the winners of the Monday exercise are the government ministers who had been put on the sack notice by both the President and his top allies last week for perceived rebellion and defiance against the government. Will the Head of State go ahead and sack the so called “rebel” ministers or attempt to build bridges for national cohesion, peace and progress?
Cabinet shake up that sidelines the Orange winners could boomerang on Kibaki and his administration if he still hopes to steer Kenya peacefully through the remaining two years of his tenure or indeed if he dares look beyond is first term. The president might have to take another look at his favorite ministers and the inner cabinet. He must reign them in, compel them to read from same script as their colleagues and help wean them from perception of arrogance.
And should the predicted night of the long knives ever come to be? There will no doubt be finger pointing and blame trading. These will no doubt be based on who has been able to bring what to the table in the referendum results. Leading the list of those who are bound to find themselves being brought to account will be Vice President Moody Awori and Ford Kenya leader Musikari Kombo who had been expected to deliver Western province. In past elections, the province and its leaders have rallied behind the leader of Ford Kenya the most predominant party in the area. It is now evident that neither Kombo nor Awori had a blank cheque to give the banana side. Indeed Awori miserably failed, his high pedestal as vice-president notwithstanding. So does this mean that the president is likely to embark on head hunt for his principal assistant. This is very likely for Kibaki must out of necessity reach out for more credible, better embedded leaders across the country.
Musalia Mudavadi, who lost the Sabatia seat in 2002 through the Narc euphoria has rebounded and could be the province’s pointman in the future if the results of the referendum are anything to go by.
The results from the area equally dismissed the myth that the Luhyia and Luo community can never make mutual commitment to a course.
As the Orange Democratic Movement now strategise on the next move and especially the 2007 assault on the presidency, the position of Uhuru Kenyatta could be quite precarious since he delivered nothing and what other communities are bound to interpret as ability of other communities to ascend to the top leadership without the Kikuyu support.
Certain individuals have emerged as the lot to watch. In this group are Raila, Kalonzo, Mudavadi, Ruto and Balala. Major negotiations, alignments and luck must play in Kenyatta’s favour if he is to be a factor in the next national poll. And as Makadara MP Reuben Ndolo alliance if it should survive to 2007 could be an unstoppable poll juggernaut.
For a while now, Energy minister Simeon Nyachae has been the political kingpin in Gusiiland. His has been the last word and which is why the referendum loss is warning shot for him and virtually confirms that his influence henceforth is fragile. South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara who had the guts and temerity to broke ranks with Nyachae by teaming up with the Orange has every reason to be upbeat about his political future.
With the referendum over, a new chapter has opened in the country’s politics and much more waits to be seen including realignments, fallouts and strategies. Kenyans have spent heavily both financially and time on the review exercise and must now focus on other development issues as leaders chart the next course of action to complete the review process.
And so they are the true winners in this exercise because their voice has been loudly heard and their power felt. But they will also have to make concessions to revive the process before pushing it to its logical conclusion because a new constitution has been long in coming and even 15 years later and sacrifices and even deaths, it is still not insight.
The Orange team must see their victory as the beginning of a new challenge. A challenge which will not preoccupy itself with losing or winning but making the dispensation a win win situation for that is what genuine constitution-making is all about. The president showed the way when he conceded defeat. It was also heartening that the orange side reciprocated by pledging to reach out to the other side. That is where the hope for Kenyans lie. In victory the No luminaries must not ignore the fact that the process must be reactivated all over again as the losers positively take stock of their fortunes and identify where they went wrong. Considering the costs already incurred and the fact that majority are agreed that only 20 per cent of the Wako draft is flawed, the losers and winners must come together soberly and resolve the contentious issues amicably.
Kenyans are already fatigued with this review debate and the sooner solutions to the flaws are found, the better. And as leaders seek to resolve the matter objectively, Kenyans expect destructive and partisan politics to be kept off the exercise for a final legitimate draft.
In the just ended referendum ,politicians were very economical with the truth and their interpretations of various clauses and issues in the Wako draft were through lenses coloured by hate, suspicion, tribalism and mutual empathy.
The country went through the process on Monday peacefully and its people fully exercised their democratic mandate. The sacrifices to the process has been painful and dear to individuals, groups and communities and must catalyze the country’s resolve to end this long protracted debate amicably and as a united nation. It has been argued before that constitutions are always reviewed at times of conflicts and war and Kenyans must demystify this myth by rewriting theirs peacefully.
By MBOTHU KAMAU
FINALLY Kenyans have officially rejected the Wako draft constitution and opened new frontiers in the country’s political landscape as President Mwai Kibaki and his men absorb the shock from the referendum.
Results from the Monday poll are a loud political statement to the to the president that apart from his native Gikuyu, Meru and Embu communities (GEMA), the rest of Kenya at best has only tepid confidence in him and his government.
His Vice President Moody Awori indicated five months ago that a No victory at the plebiscite would mean lack of confidence in the Head of State and his government. The voters rejected the draft in total and vanquished Awori in his Funyula constituency and other key ministers including Simeon Nyachae, Professor George Saitoti, Kipruto Kirwa, Charity Ngilu, Chirau Ali Makwere, Raphael Tuju, Joseph Munyao, Newton Kulundu and Morris Dzoro.
If true democracy had fully taken root in this country, President Kibaki would have sought fresh mandate from the electorate in the light of the outcome from the poll.
The leading luminaries in the Orange team commanded their respective provinces except the Official Opposition leader Uhuru Kenyatta who however staged a strong showing in his Gatundu South constituency losing by a mere three thousand votes to the Yes team.
From the poll, Roads minister Raila Odinga emerged the undisputed overall winner in Nairobi and Nyanza for Orange, former Vice President Musalia Mudavadi delivered a good chunk of Western, Najib Balala did the same for Coast, William Ruto emerged tops in Rift Valley while Kalonzo Musyoka eclipsed Ngilu in Ukambani.
Ironically, the winners of the Monday exercise are the government ministers who had been put on the sack notice by both the President and his top allies last week for perceived rebellion and defiance against the government. Will the Head of State go ahead and sack the so called “rebel” ministers or attempt to build bridges for national cohesion, peace and progress?
Cabinet shake up that sidelines the Orange winners could boomerang on Kibaki and his administration if he still hopes to steer Kenya peacefully through the remaining two years of his tenure or indeed if he dares look beyond is first term. The president might have to take another look at his favorite ministers and the inner cabinet. He must reign them in, compel them to read from same script as their colleagues and help wean them from perception of arrogance.
And should the predicted night of the long knives ever come to be? There will no doubt be finger pointing and blame trading. These will no doubt be based on who has been able to bring what to the table in the referendum results. Leading the list of those who are bound to find themselves being brought to account will be Vice President Moody Awori and Ford Kenya leader Musikari Kombo who had been expected to deliver Western province. In past elections, the province and its leaders have rallied behind the leader of Ford Kenya the most predominant party in the area. It is now evident that neither Kombo nor Awori had a blank cheque to give the banana side. Indeed Awori miserably failed, his high pedestal as vice-president notwithstanding. So does this mean that the president is likely to embark on head hunt for his principal assistant. This is very likely for Kibaki must out of necessity reach out for more credible, better embedded leaders across the country.
Musalia Mudavadi, who lost the Sabatia seat in 2002 through the Narc euphoria has rebounded and could be the province’s pointman in the future if the results of the referendum are anything to go by.
The results from the area equally dismissed the myth that the Luhyia and Luo community can never make mutual commitment to a course.
As the Orange Democratic Movement now strategise on the next move and especially the 2007 assault on the presidency, the position of Uhuru Kenyatta could be quite precarious since he delivered nothing and what other communities are bound to interpret as ability of other communities to ascend to the top leadership without the Kikuyu support.
Certain individuals have emerged as the lot to watch. In this group are Raila, Kalonzo, Mudavadi, Ruto and Balala. Major negotiations, alignments and luck must play in Kenyatta’s favour if he is to be a factor in the next national poll. And as Makadara MP Reuben Ndolo alliance if it should survive to 2007 could be an unstoppable poll juggernaut.
For a while now, Energy minister Simeon Nyachae has been the political kingpin in Gusiiland. His has been the last word and which is why the referendum loss is warning shot for him and virtually confirms that his influence henceforth is fragile. South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara who had the guts and temerity to broke ranks with Nyachae by teaming up with the Orange has every reason to be upbeat about his political future.
With the referendum over, a new chapter has opened in the country’s politics and much more waits to be seen including realignments, fallouts and strategies. Kenyans have spent heavily both financially and time on the review exercise and must now focus on other development issues as leaders chart the next course of action to complete the review process.
And so they are the true winners in this exercise because their voice has been loudly heard and their power felt. But they will also have to make concessions to revive the process before pushing it to its logical conclusion because a new constitution has been long in coming and even 15 years later and sacrifices and even deaths, it is still not insight.
The Orange team must see their victory as the beginning of a new challenge. A challenge which will not preoccupy itself with losing or winning but making the dispensation a win win situation for that is what genuine constitution-making is all about. The president showed the way when he conceded defeat. It was also heartening that the orange side reciprocated by pledging to reach out to the other side. That is where the hope for Kenyans lie. In victory the No luminaries must not ignore the fact that the process must be reactivated all over again as the losers positively take stock of their fortunes and identify where they went wrong. Considering the costs already incurred and the fact that majority are agreed that only 20 per cent of the Wako draft is flawed, the losers and winners must come together soberly and resolve the contentious issues amicably.
Kenyans are already fatigued with this review debate and the sooner solutions to the flaws are found, the better. And as leaders seek to resolve the matter objectively, Kenyans expect destructive and partisan politics to be kept off the exercise for a final legitimate draft.
In the just ended referendum ,politicians were very economical with the truth and their interpretations of various clauses and issues in the Wako draft were through lenses coloured by hate, suspicion, tribalism and mutual empathy.
The country went through the process on Monday peacefully and its people fully exercised their democratic mandate. The sacrifices to the process has been painful and dear to individuals, groups and communities and must catalyze the country’s resolve to end this long protracted debate amicably and as a united nation. It has been argued before that constitutions are always reviewed at times of conflicts and war and Kenyans must demystify this myth by rewriting theirs peacefully.