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Post by Ed on Dec 21, 2005 22:25:33 GMT 3
Opinion poll designed to rig out Raila? By Miguna Miguna I AM shocked at the publication of another Steadman Group opinion poll debacle. The new poll, as it is reported in the December 21, issue of the daily newspapers has shed light on one thing -- that opinion polling in Kenya is deliberately tailored to achieve parochial interests. The Steadman poll results are neither scientific nor objective. They are also not realistic or representative of the popular opinion of Kenyans. I will show why. Admittedly, I am neither a statistician nor a public opinion researcher. However, I have basic knowledge and an understanding of how one draws specific conclusions from general figures. I am also not ignorant about the vested interests involved in public opinion polling, especially in a country known more for its sectarian divisions and corruption than for its transparency. Opinion polling is also not rocket science. Take, for instance, the reported results of how Kenyans view their political parties. The first error the Steadman poll committed was to attempt to compare Narc, which is a coalition of more than 10 political parties (including LDP), with LDP. There is absolutely no rational justification or explanation for Steadman to ask Kenyans to rate Narc versus LDP. LDP is part of Narc. If Narc no longer exists (which even President Kibaki has not claimed), the current government would have to be dissolved. In any event, if this question was to be considered valid, then people's views should also have been sought of Narc versus DP; Narc versus Ford Kenya; Narc versus Ford People; Narc versus Safina; Narc versus Sisi kwa Sisi; Narc versus Kanu. That was not done and there is no explanation why Narc was compared to the LDP. It could only have been for cheap political mischief. A comprehensive, scientific and objective result of Kenyans' views on these kinds of comparisons would have produced a better representative result than the one published by Steadman. However, for the sake of argument, let us examine the Steadman poll results on the popularity of Kenyan political parties and that of their leaders in some detail in order to show that the published results exhibit mythical preconceptions rather than logical, scientific and objective analysis. The report claims that an oscillating 3-5 percent of Kenyans expressed support for the DP party. It also shows that between 2-3 per cent of Kenyans expressed support for the NAK and Ford Kenya parties. Assuming that we can cut Steadman some slack, this would imply that the remaining Narc under Kibaki - which is essentially NAK, has a claim of between 5-8 percent of popular support. Steadman also indicates that 25 per cent of Kenyans expressed support for the LDP alone. Kanu is said to have garnered 18 percent of the popular support. In total, both LDP and Kanu - or ODM- is said to have received about 43 per cent of the popular support. But Steadman seems to be clever in its propaganda. It omitted entirely a comparison between ODM and NAK. We believe that such a comparison would have been more helpful. However, I am also aware of the claim that ODM is an unregistered amorphous gathering. This argument does not have a leg to stand on in view of the fact that ODM is made up of two main political parties in the country, the same way NAK is comprised of the little parties already mentioned. What is good for the goose is good for the gander. Although Steadman does not say it, this means that the ODM has roughly about 43 per cent of the popular support compared to NAK's 5-8 per cent. If we do not quibble with these figures, they clearly show that ODM is much more popular than NAK. In fact, the figures show something even more profound -- that the LDP is not just the single most popular party in Kenya; it is much more popular than the combined force of DP, Ford Kenya, NPK, Sisi Kwa Sisi, Safina and Ford People. If Kenyans were to go to the polls today, Steadman tells us that the party that would form the next government is LDP. This is the kind of analysis required but which is glaringly missing. But there is something even more shocking in the Steadman poll claim that needs to be exposed. According to the Steadman poll result, the most favoured presidential candidate is Kalonzo Musyoka of the LDP with about 35 per cent. This is not unreasonable when we consider the popularity of LDP and ODM. What is shocking and completely unbelievable is the claim that one of the most recognised and leading lights in the LDP and ODM, Raila Odinga, did not even qualify to be polled. One has to be residing in the middle of Mars to consider such a scandalous assertion legitimate. Every Kenyan knows that it is Raila, perhaps more than even Kalonzo, that is reputed for most of the LDP and ODM gains. It is both Raila and Kalonzo (and possibly the slow-rising Mudavadi) who have acquired an almost unanimous recognition as leaders of the LDP. As such, if both the LDP and ODM are such favourites among Kenyans, how can it be that the same people would leave out one of its/their penultimate leaders from consideration? Could it be possible that someone is trying to perpetuate the unfortunate myth that has been peddled in Kenya for far too long that a Luo cannot be elected president? Are we just beginning to see a deliberate and orchestrated campaign to rig out Raila from the next presidential race? Like a sick joke, Steadman then claims that the second most popular presidential candidate is Kibaki with about 26 percent.. This is not just very poor opinion polling; it is disastrous. Kibaki is primarily the chairman of the DP party, which, according to Steadman, can only lay claim to an oscillating number of 3-5 percent. Even if Kibaki is assumed to be the leader of NAK (which he is not, considering that Kombo has never disbanded Ford Kenya and Ngilu still insists on not just being an NPK's leader, but even Narc's), he could only claim a maximum of 8 percent popular support. Where did his surplus figures come from? According to the poll, both NAK and Ford Kenya were considered "peripheral parties" with dismal support from the people. Is it possible that the same people that do not consider these parties inspiring schizophrenically show overwhelming support for the putative leader of such a withering political entity? In my view, this is very unlikely. To begin with, the logic here is tenuous. Everyone knows that NAK comprises mainly DP, Ford Kenya and NPK. It might have been more helpful if Steadman had polled the popularity of ODM versus NAK, since Narc minus LDP only leaves NAK. It would also have been more helpful to compare the popularity of DP against LDP or Ford Kenya versus LDP. Similarly, it is disingenuous for Steadman to claim that Raila's support is less than 8 per cent of the popular support in view of a claim that LDP and ODM, in particular, are gaining ground, not losing it. We hope that Steadman has not concealed some of its results like they did pre-referendum. The Steadman opinion poll gerrymandering is very dangerous for our country since its main aim appears to be intended at misleading Kenyans with the hope that an anxious and confused population would elect anyone Steadman says is popular as their next president. This is high tech-rigging of the worst kind source: www.timesnews.co.ke/22dec05/editorials/comm1.html
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Post by RCB Anon on Dec 21, 2005 22:27:17 GMT 3
Quote: There is absolutely no rational justification or explanation for Steadman to ask Kenyans to rate Narc versus LDP. LDP is part of Narc. www.timesnews.co.ke/22dec05/editorials/comm1.html Why he is wrong, first because as he says, he does not have a statistical basis. When one does research on statistics, questions may be affiliated to a conglomerate of political group, a question "Are you a subset of narc". A tag is attached. During the time when statistics compiled, one uses an SQL tpe questions on say SPSS od SAS or other software to achieve the desired outcome. It is very much possible to belong to Narc as well as LDP. It is also possible to be white as well as African or Muslim as well as non Kenyan.
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Post by odhis on Dec 21, 2005 22:38:28 GMT 3
Dont follow Oloo's path. Work hard.
for God's sake, leave stats alone and stick to law. Your piece about recent poll is reproachable. By note admitting the truth, we are hurting Raila.
The king has no cloths
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Post by Anonymous on Dec 21, 2005 22:39:35 GMT 3
I wonder why I am writing this but yours is total bull. Having work with staticics for some time abroad, I would not dismiss findinds of Steadman in that manner. You simply dismiss it without basis. I I were you I would first do several things: (1) challenge how randomised these sample was (oops, what is random in statistics?), (2) or try to get the statistic data, any such findings has its open for public to examine, (3) challenge the statistic method used and tell why it cannot apply in that sample or challenge the size of the population sampled.
Without this, your mouth is belching hot gas like Paul Muite's
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Post by Rcber on Dec 21, 2005 22:42:13 GMT 3
Migunas political argument masquarading as statistcs
Raila was included and won the popularity contest, miguna Miguna would not find any problem at all. It depends on what you wanted the polls to show.
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Post by Kamale on Dec 21, 2005 23:01:57 GMT 3
Going by previous polls, Steadman have proved that they are pretty close to the pulse of the Kenyan people. A week before the referendum, in an unreleased poll result, they actually correctly predicted the voting patterns of Kenyans.
With this in mind, I am inclined to agree with their assessment about the popularity of Kalonzo over Kibaki and this is driven perhaps more by the perception people had about the Kibaki government and his presidency following the referendum debacle. Your rubbishing of the report because Raila could only ganner 4% of the popularity contest is interesting and amusing. Raila perhaps even knows that he is not electable as a president and Kenyans have been that consistent in the polls released over the last couple of years. So it is not a new phenomenon that he could be that lowly rated.
I think Kenyans are more and more starved of good choices for a president if the people they settle for are the likes of Kibaki, Kalonzo and Uhuru.
I looked at the results in a different light especially the response of Kenyans on some of the key demands of ODM. 57% of Kenyans did not agree that there should be snap elections whilst only 6% thought that ODM should lead the review process. Even more interesting was their view that politicians be kept out of the process with 31% calling for experts whilst another 22% preferred the present constitution! I will not even bother with the fact that a majority of Kenyans do not want a prime minister.
Such polling is perhaps good for the country in that it clearly captures the national mood pretty much removed from the media hype. Kibaki now knows what people think of him as president and it behoves upon him to correctly do what they want. As for ODM, they now need to also read the mood of Kenyans and drop some of their unhealthy demands. Kenyans want a new constitution and not empty political rhetoric.
Let the work of building Kenya begin!!
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Post by underscore on Dec 21, 2005 23:36:45 GMT 3
People like you will NEVER be able to force Raila onto Kenyans. Raila will always be King of Luo Nyanza but in the rest of Kenya he will have to do a lot of convincing which he has lacked up to now. Lastly, didn't people like you argue that Jaramogi would win in 1992? Didn't people like you argue that Raila would win 1997? What happened? The latest Steadman poll was accurate! Meza wembe. Ati: www.timesnews.co.ke/22dec05/editorials/comm1.html
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Post by Sang on Dec 22, 2005 7:57:44 GMT 3
On 12/20/05, Miguna Miguna wrote:
The new poll, as it is reported on the December 21st issue of our newspapers has shed light on one thing – that opinion polling in Kenya is deliberately tailored to achieve narrow parochial ends. The Steadman poll results are neither scientific nor objective. They are also not realistic or representative of the popular opinion of Kenyans. I will show why.
Bw Miguna,
I wish to comment on some sections of your objections. First, I would assume that you are referring to the research results as reported by the newspapers, as opposed to your possession of the actual data from Steadman itself. Unless you have the actual data, the information you are referring to has already been interpreted by the newspapers, in which case, you are interpreting from the interpretation. As you are well aware, statistics can be interpreted any which way to suit the person doing the interpretation. In this case, the newspapers have interpreted them the best way they can, for the benefit of their readers. Whether they intended to advance an agenda based on those figures is not for me to say. I therefore feel that your ire should be directed at the newspapers rather than the polling company itself.
Secondly, even if Steadman deserved your condemnation, I still feel it is too early to accuse its polling methods as being "tailored to achieve narrow parochial ends". First, Steadman is a fairly new research company in Kenya. We do not yet have any historical patterns to go by in determining whether or not they in deed skew their research to suit certain quarters. We ought to give them the benefit of the doubt, given that they are members of the Gallup Poll International, whose surveys are respected around the world. I would like to think that Steadman has adhered to scientific and representative criteria to conduct their surveys. But since you do not seem to have a problem with the integrity of their methods, let's move on to the merits of the figures.
It is important to understand that a survey, or a poll, is only designed to sample the opinion of a randomly selected group, whose views are extrapolated to represent the entire population. Many people ask "How can only 2,000 people represent the entire country?" The reality is you cannot possibly hope to survey 30 million Kenyans in your lifetime on a contemporary issue. That's why random samples are an accepted means of polling. It is the same way the doctor takes only a sample of your blood (and not suck every drop out) from your body for testing.
Let's move on to your other arguments
You said: "Take, for instance, the reported results of how Kenyans view their political parties. The first error the Steadman poll committed was to attempt to compare Narc, which is a coalition of more than ten political parties (including LDP), with LDP." From the limited data we have, it seems to me that this is not the case. According to the newspapers, all the parties were compared: Thus, NARC is 26%, while KANU is 16%. Within NARC LDP stands at 25%, DP and the rest stand at less than 6%. I think this is a fair comparison.
You said:
The report claims that an oscillating 3-5 percent of Kenyans expressed support for the DP party. It also shows that between 2-3 per cent of Kenyans expressed support for the NAK and Ford Kenya parties. Assuming that we can cut Steadman some slack, this would imply that the remaining Narc under Kibaki – which is essentially NAK, has a claim of between 5-8 percent of popular support.........In total, both LDP and Kanu – or ODM- is said to have received about 43 per cent of the popular support.
You are correct here, but I believe the rationale was to compare only the registered parties - LDP, KANU and DP. ODM and NAK are not.
You said: In fact, the figures show something even more profound - that the LDP is not just the single most popular party in Kenya; it is much more popular than the combined force of DP, Ford Kenya, NPK, Sisi Kwa Sisi, Safina and Ford People. If Kenyans were to go to the polls today, Steadman tells us that the party that would form the next government is LDP. If Kenyans were to go to the polls today, Steadman tells us that the party that would form the next government is LDP. This is the kind of analysis required but which is glaringly missing.
This is true to a point. LDP's popularity seems to be due to Kalonzo's popularity. If anything were to happen to him, then LDP stands no chance. This only drives home the point that no single party, individual, or ethnic group stands a chance of ruling without alliances.
You said: Every Kenyan knows that it is Raila, perhaps more than even Kalonzo that is reputed for most of the LDP and ODM gains.......... Could it possible that someone is trying to perpetuate the unfortunate myth that has been peddled in Kenya for far too long that a Luo cannot be elected president? Are we just beginning to see a deliberate and orchestrated campaign to rig out Raila from the next presidential race?
With due respect, this borders on hubris and an over-reaction. Again, not to take away from Raila, LDP's popularity has gained tremendously from Kalonzo Musyoka's popularity - at least going by the referendum. The fact that Musyoka is popular even with the KANU-leaning Rift Valley tells you a lot about what force he has become. What is going on here is that a seed was already planted in people's mind during the constitution writing that Raila wanted to become the Prime Minister. If Steadman had asked the respondents whom they would elect for PM, I am sure Raila would have scored higher than anybody else. As it is, some people have already allocated leadership positions to the ODM leadership after 2007. President = Musyoka. VP = Kenyatta. PM = Raila and Deputy PM = Ruto. Wrongly or rightly the respondents may have considered this before answering their questions. They do not live in a vacuum.
You said: Like a sick joke, Steadman then claims that the second most popular presidential candidate is Kibaki with about 26 percent.
I believe the pollsters would call this a Simpson's Paradox, where the results from a combined set of groups seem to contradict those of the results of those individual groups. For example, in our case, the dismal performance of each NAK party (DP,NPK, etc), cannot explain how Kibaki can turn around and run second in popularity. I don't think this is intentional. It is simply a fact of statisitics. I am sure qualified statisticians can expound on it some more.
You said: The Steadman opinion poll gerrymandering is very dangerous for our country since its main aim appear to be intended at misleading Kenyans with the hope that an anxious and confused population would elect anyone Steadman says is popular as their next president. This is high tech-rigging of the worst kind.
Unless it can be proven that the integrity Steadman's research methods are questionable, we will have no choice but to have confidence in their polls. So far, nobody has come forward to prove otherwise: at least none that I know of anyway. The culprit will always be the one interpreting the results. Before we throw stones, let us also check how we do our own interpretations.
Sang. ====
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kweli
New Member
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Post by kweli on Dec 22, 2005 14:49:03 GMT 3
CURIOUSLY the people who make Raila 'King' give Kalonzo more votes than Eastern province or any other ! I think you have missed the point Miguna by skipping this simple fact , what should baffle you and me is when and where it was decided that the Raila followers would vote Kalonzo as they did ?
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Post by asego on Dec 23, 2005 6:14:46 GMT 3
1. the main characteristics of a scientific surveys are a) that respondents are chosen according to explicit criteria to ensure representativeness rather than being self-selected and b) that questions are worded in a balanced way.
2. the steadman group is a wholly kenyan owned company. like most other things kenyan it is bound to have some tribal leanings and bias.
3. when results of statistical sampling and polling by this group is seen to systematically favor some outcomes over others, the question we need to ask is: did the poll have any characteristics of a scientific poll ? to this i say no. why ?
a) the question who amongst "kibaki, uhuru and musyoka would you choose for president" does not deliver the same answer as "whom would you choose as president". musyoka, kibaki, uhuru may be first, second and third for the first question but the second question may deliver a totaly different set of answers i.e omolo wuod lando, wamuhu, raila, musyoka, musalia, rutto and then kibaki. the recent poll result DID NOT therefore show who kenyans want for president. it only showed WHO AMONGST THE THREE is favoured by kenyans. this then brings me to my second point....
b) the poll was designed to a) create division in the odm b) prepare kenyans to accept a constitution without pm and therefore scutter any power sharing arrangements in odm c) do away with any gains raila may have made interms of personal profilication during the referendum campaigns d) portray raila as a man majority of kenyans do not want either as president or pm.
does it not occur to kenyans that if there is any polling group whose results have consistently portrayed raila as a leader not acceptable to kenyans then it is always from steadman ?
now who owns steadman ?
steadman is owned by the same people who finances dp party. so why would they put money into an investment (dp) they are not willing to support ? think!
sadly, i must say it though, it is a manifestation of the phobia some people have for a luo leadership. i am not saying raila may have been the choice of kenyans. i am only saying a poll on the presidency without raila, kombo, nyachae, ngilu - all declared presidential material - is not scientifically correct.
of asego bay on poll position 1
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Post by notiya on Dec 23, 2005 6:21:07 GMT 3
Qouting Miguna: "In fact, the figures show something even more profound - that the LDP is not just the single most popular party in Kenya; it is much more popular than the combined force of DP, Ford Kenya, NPK, Sisi Kwa Sisi, Safina and Ford People. If Kenyans were to go to the polls today, Steadman tells us that the party that would form the next government is LDP. If Kenyans were to go to the polls today, Steadman tells us that the party that would form the next government is LDP. This is the kind of analysis required but which is glaringly missing."
Quoting Sang: "This is true to a point. LDP's popularity seems to be due to Kalonzo's popularity. If anything were to happen to him, then LDP stands no chance. This only drives home the point that no single party, individual, or ethnic group stands a chance of ruling without alliances."
Nd Sang,
In your well thought out rejoinder to Nd Miguna above, you make an observation that I would like to respond to. With due respect, LDP`s popularity may not be due to Kalonzo`s popularity as it were. Rather, LDP`s popularity is credited to its being seen, in the eyes of many, as a voice for the people against a minority government that wants to force its path on others, and that has yet made any significant inroads in reinvigorating Kenya`s nascent economy.A party that had long since taken over from Kanu as the govt`s watchman, it presented itself from the day go, as the party that would later expose scandalous deals in govt. To a very large degree, Kalonzo himself owes his popularity to his being in the LDP fold.
It is not even about personalities per se; it is all about a movement the people of Kenyan think may create an opportunity for a better tomorrow. Whether LDP can surely rise to the occasion and capture those aspirations is not for me to judge at this juncture. So that even if Kalonzo switches to another outfit, and say Musalia Mudavadi is fronted to the Kenyan populace as an LDP leading light, Kalonzo`s popularity would almost instantly fall while Mudavadi`s would rise. (Notice that Moses Akaranga, Mudavadi`s current MP, was elevated to a full ministerial position to give him a headstart in cutting Mudavadi down to size).
I put it that Kalonzo`s smartest move in his political career thus far, was to ditch Mr Moi`s Kanu in 2002 and to not only identify himself with Ldp, but also lay bare his presidential ambition.
What you correctly capture, beyond the faintest shadow of doubt, is that: " This only drives home the point that no single party, individual, or ethnic group stands a chance of ruling without alliances."
One observation I would like to comment on, which Nd Mangerere made, is that, curiously, the people polled did not pass a clean bill of health to one of ODM`s prime movers( let us now switch from LDP to ODM), Raila Odinga, as a potential presidential material. Whether this is a strategic move by Steadman, in connivance with other players, to puncture Mr Odinga`s presidential bid, if any, I cannot for sure tell. What I can tell though, is that a majority of Kenyans still view Mr Odinga largely as a King Maker. That they would like to see him play this role within the ODM. They are telling the son of the doyen of opposition politics in Kenya, to once again eschew his presidential ambitions and help catapult an ODM figure to the sanctum of power. They are saying that although they admire the son of the woman from Alego, he had better make someone a King from the ODM outfit and share powers with that King. And yet, and this you must note, many of his supporters from Nyanza are skeptic whether his- would be King, if this is the arrangement he may choose, will not disappoint.
If ODM may later careen into power struggle; if it may eventually be riddled by internal divisions that may precipitate a fall out;if it may be caught up in a profound party crisis, then it will no doubt create a fair opportunity for the crisis hit NAK to make inroads. Fairly clearly, the swing of the pendulum and the political matrix that will take shape in the 2007 elections will be determined by, inter alia:
1.Whether a Bomas-type new constitution is enacted before the next election. If it does happen, it would give ODM a head start and bolster its power sharing arrangement (Notice how ODM has hinted that it would like to steer the review process). Chances are, we may not go to the next polls under a new constitution, further compounding turmoil about the possibility of the enactment of a new document.
2.Whether ODM remains intact before the next polls.
3.Whether NAK reaches out to other communities and fields a younger, dynamic candidate not tainted with graft. If they field Emilio, they can as well as begin planning for their retirement. If on the other hand they adopt a wait and see attitude, pray for a bloodbath to occur in ODM, and shop for a likeable candidate from a populous community, they will give ODM a run for their money. ( I am not saying that minority communities should not/cannot lead. Rather, I am attempting to view matters as they are rather than as they are imagined or supposed to be).
n`otiya
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Post by Matunda on Dec 23, 2005 6:24:48 GMT 3
This discussion assumes ODM will tranform itself into a political party (ala Narc of 2002)! I have my doubts.
It is unlikely that Kanu, the largest single, most entrenched and resource-rich party will play second fiddle to LDP! Kanu might want to swallow other parties while retaining the historical Kanu name, as happened when it merged with the NDP a few years ago. This is a move the LDP is unlikely to welcome given its apparent popularity, fiery leadership and upward ascendancy.
ODM is an amorphous movement that appeared at the spur of the moment to oppose the referendum. The response in the referendum was binary - YES or NO. Elections will not be that simple; they are more complex, a situation that will be even more compounded by which political leader gets on what bandwagon, the resources they can raise for the campaign and the poltical mood they create in the process.
There is more.
Since 2002 Kenyans' appetite for change has been whetted substantially. Twice (in 2002 elections and in the referendum) Kenyans have seen results of their poltical engagement. The question is whether this engagement can be sustained through 2007. I posit that it can be sustained if the contestants give the people clear choices; and by clear choices I mean the kind we got in 2002, as opposed to the field of contestants in 1992 and 1997 when a fractured Opposition allowed Moi's Kanu to romp home with 40% or less in the national vote!
As well, little has been said of what the parties represent, a fact that underlines the infant nature of the country's politics. There is little to demonstrate that any of the parties is different from the next one. parties are distinguished from others by ethnic kingpins as opposed to policy differences.
If indeed Wanjiku has to benefit in the future, we have to drive party politics to situations where Wanjiku chooses from competing visions of the country with respect economic, social, international, etc. issues.
I hope that the ODM can take advantage of the luminary power in its ranks and so called "recess" to chart into new territory and help tranform the political landscape. Unless that happens, we will continue replacing one elite political group with another with little benefit for Wanjiku.
Matunda
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Post by Kioko on Dec 23, 2005 6:29:52 GMT 3
A curious thing about Kalonzo's numbers is that his support from Nyanza was exceedingly high. This is both a strength and his archilles heel. If Raila does not tell Luo's "Kalonzo Tosha," his goose is as good as cooked. Raila is over 60. Those who prefer to call him a "young turk," are stretching the meaning of "young." The question is whether he considers the next election as his last shot at the presidency. His statement the other day that the "mistake" made in 2002 of endorsing someone else for the top seat will not be repeated this time round was very telling. According to him, LDP will conduct democratic elections to identify its leader. This is where things will get interesting. In LDP, I think Raila would win. However, in the larger ODM, perhaps Kalonzo might win, but only if Uhuru stands down, which is unlikely. Matters will be even more complicated if the country will go into the next elections with the current constitution, which has no positions "worthy" of kingmakers. The question is - will Raila fall on the sword for Kalonzo? Does Raila owe Kalonzo anything? I personally do not think Kalonzo's stature would be diminished by his departure from LDP. As it is now, he appears like a hostage in Raila's Guatanamo. The sooner he established his own independence, the better. If Kenyans have learnt anything, it is that governments made by "kingmakers" are inherently unstable, made so when the kingmaker comes for his pound of flesh. In any case, do Kenyans really want to establish this as a pattern of forming their governments? Is this going to be Kenya's informal constitution? Regarding the Steadman poll, that it is being attacked by both sides perhaps hints to its objectivity. But that is neither here nor there. What the country needs is a pluralism of polls. With many polls, Kenyans will be confounded by their multiple prognosis, and consent, ala, Chomsky, will thus be manufactured. The monopoly of polling that Steadman appears to enjoy confers a certain undeserved worthiness and invincibility to it. A competitive field of pollsters would replicate or debunk the results of each other.
julius Kioko
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Post by Nyabuto on Dec 23, 2005 6:41:32 GMT 3
Miguna, you said According to the Steadman poll result, the most favoured presidential candidate is Kalonzo Musyoka of the LDP with about 35 per cent. This is not unreasonable when we consider the popularity of LDP and ODM. What is shocking and completely unbelievable is the claim that one of the most recognized and leading lights in the LDP and ODM, Raila Odinga, did not even qualify to be polled. One has to be residing in the middle of Mars to consider such a scandalous assertion legitimate.
Miguna, What qualities do you consider when you say this ? Who said steadman performed their search by party comparison ? They just identified Kalonzo Musyoka according to where he belongs and compared his rating with Kibaki's? Raila declared his candidacy for 2007 about last year as well as early this year and he has been a contestant before in the 1990s with a number 4 position. We should only encourage him to run. Kalonzo has declared it so many times. I don't see the source of your shock because Steadman is simply basing their results on popularity for which even Kalonzo should be ready to defend.
Nyabuto
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Post by hijamo on Dec 23, 2005 15:46:26 GMT 3
Who Is Steadman Who has paid him to confuse the Kenyans ? Steadman Is a part and Percel of The Same Ukoloni-Mambo -Leo ( imperialism) Who is Enjoying The Poor weak Brainwashed Kenyan Elites . Back To the distorted Kenyan History Railas Father Our Hero J Oginga Ondinga was Destroyed Politically By Kenyatta Together with British Colonialist Masters When They Started Disinformation Campaigns That Oginga Was a COMMUNIST . Kenyans were told that Communism is an Evil System that should not be allowed in kenya. Oginga Odiga was fought From all Fronts both churches were used to preach in all schools how communism was evileg: If you have 2(two) cows the government takes both and shoots the owner dead. If you you have two wives the same govt takes both and deports you to ghokis( prison )et al .
Railas Father was Detained by Both Kenyatta and Moi Regimes . Today Raila Odinga is Being Fought From all Fronts by the same ruling Class that fought his late father together with other forces of imperialists in keya .Raila was Educated in the former East Germany communist country which was by then a Warsaw-pact nation. And to this day the west and the kenya ruling class views Raila as a Threat not because he is a luo but according to them the Man is a Communist Ifallowed to take Power in Kenya Raila will Nationalize their assets and remove the Monopoly that Both ruling Class and Imperialist enjoys in kenya Today. The same case MAJIMBO was fought and Rejected by the ruling class preaching and sowing seeds of discourse in the mind of kenyans . the Propaganda spread like bushfire that if kenya goes Majimbo other tribes like Kikuyus Will be chased from the Riftvalley and in other parts of kenya. The big question to be asked is why should kenyan intellectuals and politicians abadon the people they are supposed to protect as it is done in other democratic countries. But kenyan elites has joined hands with imperialists and other forces to loot kenya .Thats why when STEADMAN GROUP came with their evil tactic to devide Silly African Kenyans, who cant think without allowing others to think for them .Stedman are there to make sure the Society swallows any Rubbish they put forward hence Steadman has Studied the Weak behaviours and the way African thinks and what African would like to hear. Steadman is a part and Percel of many colors of imperialism especially this Era of Globalization .The Kenya people should unite and Identify the enemy So that Enemy should be destroyed once and for all.
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