Post by Ed on Jan 10, 2006 10:25:25 GMT 3
The unravelling of the ODM
by MUTUMA MATHIU
Publication Date: 1/8/2006
The Orange Democratic Movement, it would appear, has begun to unravel. I have watched the events of the past week with rising fascination. It occurs to me that none of the so-called ODM luminaries is prepared to hold back, none is willing to take the back seat, none is willing to recognise the relative merits of the other or acknowledge their own political weaknesses. The greed and irrational ambition of Kenyan politics is enough to make even the stoutest of optimists despair.
There are three main prongs in the ODM, the way I see it. There is, first and foremost, former Roads minister Raila Odinga, an indefatigable campaigner who brings demonstrable populist capabilities and the votes of Nyanza. He is the undisputed leader.
Then there is former Environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka, who arrives with the votes of his homeland and poll ratings which show him to be the one politician who could beat President Kibaki in an election. Of course, it takes more than poll ratings to win an election. You need money, lots of it, you need organisational resources, you need good political and governmental connections.
Finally, there is Mr William Ruto, Kanu Secretary-General and former Home Affairs minister. Mr Ruto is really just the tip of the iceberg. Below the waterline where you see him jutting out lies the extensive and powerful political/commercial/Rift Valley edifice created by former President Moi.
There is also Mr Musalia Mudavadi, the man who was Vice-President for a couple of months and who is viewed as ODM's window into Western Province. In 2002, Mr Mudavadi was revealed as a politician whose political judgment leaves a lot to be desired after he defected to Rainbow then buckled under pressure and rejoined Kanu for the reward of temporary vice-presidency. He lacks the ruthless, stab-your-grandmother-in-the-back drive which is the essential quality of every successful politician.
Then there is Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, who does not have all that much experience but has land, money and the Kenyatta pedigree. The assumption all along, among the public and many politicians, has been that Mr Odinga would himself not run for the presidency but would support one of the others in exchange for the premiership, which would be created in such a way that the real power is taken away from the imperial presidency and lots of it invested in the prime minister.
I don't know when it became a political truism that Mr Odinga couldn't win a straight presidential contest. But politicians and bar-room analysts have hitherto assumed that Mr Odinga's best route to power is through proxy.
Not that those theories matter any more now since he has decided to put them to the test. If Mr Odinga runs for the Liberal Democratic Party ticket, as he has announced he will, I am willing to bet a cow that he will get it. His rivals for power in ODM will quote democracy and swear to support the winner, but I am willing to bet another cow that Mr Musyoka will run for president whether the LDP ticket goes to Mr Odinga or to the Queen of Sparta.
I am willing to bet yet another cow – that's the third cow I am putting on the line – that it is not the intention of Mr Moi, or his icebergs, to put Mr Odinga in power. Therefore, Kanu will have a candidate running against Mr Odinga, whether it is Mr Ruto or Mr Kenyatta that remains to be seen. And that is what I am calling the unravelling of ODM. Politicians, like actors, are hooked on and get off on, public adulation. I have never met a politician who does not believe without question his or her own popularity.
Let me speculate. Mr Musyoka has been watching the opinion polls with rising confidence. He has been counting on the unquestioning support of Mr Odinga at every step of the way to 2007. My bet is that right now Mr Odinga's declared candidature makes him feel let down and betrayed.
With time, he will be convinced, either by himself or his minders, that Mr Odinga is just another impediment on the way to State House, which requires to be overcome. As the most popular politician in his party and the one with the best chance of being elected, why shouldn't he be anointed and supported by the lesser quantities?
There is another dimension. Like other tribal chieftains, Mr Musyoka is a hostage to the ambitions of the elite of his own community. If he does not run for president, there is every chance that he would no longer enjoy the united support of his tribe. His own continued relevance depends on going all the way and not settling for second best.
I could be wrong, of course.
by MUTUMA MATHIU
Publication Date: 1/8/2006
The Orange Democratic Movement, it would appear, has begun to unravel. I have watched the events of the past week with rising fascination. It occurs to me that none of the so-called ODM luminaries is prepared to hold back, none is willing to take the back seat, none is willing to recognise the relative merits of the other or acknowledge their own political weaknesses. The greed and irrational ambition of Kenyan politics is enough to make even the stoutest of optimists despair.
There are three main prongs in the ODM, the way I see it. There is, first and foremost, former Roads minister Raila Odinga, an indefatigable campaigner who brings demonstrable populist capabilities and the votes of Nyanza. He is the undisputed leader.
Then there is former Environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka, who arrives with the votes of his homeland and poll ratings which show him to be the one politician who could beat President Kibaki in an election. Of course, it takes more than poll ratings to win an election. You need money, lots of it, you need organisational resources, you need good political and governmental connections.
Finally, there is Mr William Ruto, Kanu Secretary-General and former Home Affairs minister. Mr Ruto is really just the tip of the iceberg. Below the waterline where you see him jutting out lies the extensive and powerful political/commercial/Rift Valley edifice created by former President Moi.
There is also Mr Musalia Mudavadi, the man who was Vice-President for a couple of months and who is viewed as ODM's window into Western Province. In 2002, Mr Mudavadi was revealed as a politician whose political judgment leaves a lot to be desired after he defected to Rainbow then buckled under pressure and rejoined Kanu for the reward of temporary vice-presidency. He lacks the ruthless, stab-your-grandmother-in-the-back drive which is the essential quality of every successful politician.
Then there is Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, who does not have all that much experience but has land, money and the Kenyatta pedigree. The assumption all along, among the public and many politicians, has been that Mr Odinga would himself not run for the presidency but would support one of the others in exchange for the premiership, which would be created in such a way that the real power is taken away from the imperial presidency and lots of it invested in the prime minister.
I don't know when it became a political truism that Mr Odinga couldn't win a straight presidential contest. But politicians and bar-room analysts have hitherto assumed that Mr Odinga's best route to power is through proxy.
Not that those theories matter any more now since he has decided to put them to the test. If Mr Odinga runs for the Liberal Democratic Party ticket, as he has announced he will, I am willing to bet a cow that he will get it. His rivals for power in ODM will quote democracy and swear to support the winner, but I am willing to bet another cow that Mr Musyoka will run for president whether the LDP ticket goes to Mr Odinga or to the Queen of Sparta.
I am willing to bet yet another cow – that's the third cow I am putting on the line – that it is not the intention of Mr Moi, or his icebergs, to put Mr Odinga in power. Therefore, Kanu will have a candidate running against Mr Odinga, whether it is Mr Ruto or Mr Kenyatta that remains to be seen. And that is what I am calling the unravelling of ODM. Politicians, like actors, are hooked on and get off on, public adulation. I have never met a politician who does not believe without question his or her own popularity.
Let me speculate. Mr Musyoka has been watching the opinion polls with rising confidence. He has been counting on the unquestioning support of Mr Odinga at every step of the way to 2007. My bet is that right now Mr Odinga's declared candidature makes him feel let down and betrayed.
With time, he will be convinced, either by himself or his minders, that Mr Odinga is just another impediment on the way to State House, which requires to be overcome. As the most popular politician in his party and the one with the best chance of being elected, why shouldn't he be anointed and supported by the lesser quantities?
There is another dimension. Like other tribal chieftains, Mr Musyoka is a hostage to the ambitions of the elite of his own community. If he does not run for president, there is every chance that he would no longer enjoy the united support of his tribe. His own continued relevance depends on going all the way and not settling for second best.
I could be wrong, of course.