Post by Ed on Jan 19, 2006 5:48:13 GMT 3
Which way Kalonzo, after betrayal?
Story by KIVUTHA KIBWANA
Publication Date: 1/19/2006
During the New Year, Mr Raila Odinga sent a clear and terse political message that he is definitely going to seek LDP’s presidential nomination in 2007.
This carefully timed pronouncement was especially targeted at Mr Kalonzo Musyoka. The LDP rank-and-file, which used to vote for Mr Musyoka in opinion polls, has now been informed that Musyoka is not the official LDP flag-bearer in 2007. He will merely be one of the presidential nominees. The next opinion poll is likely to confirm that LDP and Raila have devalued Musyoka.
Many of us had advised Mr Musyoka that it was just a matter of time before Mr Odinga disowned him. Mr Odinga's strategy was to get Mr Musyoka to sufficiently antagonise Narc and the presidency before withholding the affirmation
Since Mr Odinga is around 60 and ageing, he has decided he must have a go at the presidency in 2007 as he did in 1997. Time is running out; it waits for no king.
Disaster waiting to happen
He has been advised that the ODM momentum should now serve him well. Whether he can win is another proposition, which only history will judge.
Factually, Mr Odinga controls the LDP. If he is a presidential aspirant under the LDP banner, it is unlikely that he can lose the nomination. Therefore, the way he has treated Mr Musyoka was a disaster waiting to happen. This is sluice-gate or slow puncture betrayal.
Mr Musyoka, the born-again Christian, naively trusted Mr Odinga and the LDP without much reflection and analysis of the political quicksand he was getting into.
He virtually has no committed think-tank, no political money capable of supporting a presidential candidature (hence the Kalonzo Musyoka Foundation), and no national network to mobilise support except that which he inherited from the late Kamba political supremo, Mr Mulu Mutisya.
Interestingly, even the senior Kamba politicians and businessmen associated with former President Moi have not yet fully supported Musyoka since Moi has not signalled them to do so.
Mr Musyoka is yet to mobilise the national consensus that Mzee Kenyatta, Mr Moi and President Kibaki developed painfully – block by block – on their way up the political ladder.
Unfortunately, both Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka are used to attacking and alienating potential support. They have not been adept at bridge building. When people said Moi was a push-over or Kibaki was a fence-sitter, bridge-building was confused for weakness.
A proper reading of the current LDP politics reveals that Luo, Luhya and Coast LDP leadership is skeptical about Mr Musyoka. He was recently criticised for not voting against the Constitution in Parliament. He is bad-mouthed for being extremely ambitious and arrogant, but a poor organiser who waits for others to do the tedious political spadework before he reaps a bumper harvest.
His colleagues say his work-ethic is poor. He has further been associated with looking down upon mid- and low-level LDP leadership.
Recently, the LDP queried why in Mr Musyoka's Mwingi North Constituency, 6,780 voters rejected his ‘No’ position.
He has also been labelled as anti-democratic and anti-development. However, he has not been associated with any serious corruption scandal despite the fact that under Moi, he had ample opportunity to pilfer public resources.
Methodically destroyed
Mr Odinga's strategy was to suck Mr Musyoka deep into controversy, thereby ensuring his exit route became a cul-de-sac.
If Mr Musyoka was methodically destroyed, then Mr Odinga's chances at the presidency would be enhanced. Only the Musalia Mudavadi factor would now have to be dealt with.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is a non-starter unless it concedes that Kanu will supply the presidential candidate. Will the political siamese twins be Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Gideon Moi? (Mr William Ruto is a proxy for Gideon although he is beginning to think he can be his own man).
Both Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi have been advised to return to Kanu if each of them want to be considered as a possible presidential aspirant. Can they eat humble pie? Can they allow Mzee Moi to have the last laugh?
Be that as it may, aspirants under the Kanu banner will have to answer the six-million-dollar question: In 2007, will Kenyans be ready to vote Kanu back into power? When all is said and done, I suspect they are not yet ready to embrace Kanu. What options then does Mr Musyoka have?
Kalonzo's political options
He can wait and vie in LDP nominations and lose. The Kamba may afterwards not support him if he establishes or joins another party at a late hour. They will know his rebound presidential bid has no serious chances of success.
He can rejoin Kanu and try his luck from there. However, former President Moi has been known to doubt whether Mr Musyoka has presidential stature. Indeed one of the reasons he left Kanu to join the Rainbow faction was that he knew there wasn’t much love lost between Moi and himself.
A return to Kanu, therefore, is likely to be a political boomerang, even political suicide, for Mr Musyoka.
Mr Musyoka can create his own party whose base is from his ethnic community.
Previously there has been mention of Rainbow Development Party (RDP), and National Labour Party (NLP). He can hope to capture a large number of the Kamba region parliamentary and civic seats. He can then use the numbers to negotiate with whoever wins in 2007.
This strategy has the drawback that a significant population in Ukambani may abandon him when they realise he has scant support from elsewhere.
Although Kambas can be headstrong when they choose, they don’t like identifying too long with the opposition. If then they realise he cannot deliver the presidency, they may reassess their relationship with him and so may some of the MPs and councillors currently supporting him.
He and his team have the option of returning to Narc. In politics, there are no permanent enemies. In every political thoroughfare and its troubled waters, there is always a bridge.
He may come to appreciate that his political interest and that of his community are better served in Narc. He needs to consult elders from the four Kamba districts, the diaspora and other honest national leaders whom he works closely with.
Prof Kibwana is the minister for Environment
Story by KIVUTHA KIBWANA
Publication Date: 1/19/2006
During the New Year, Mr Raila Odinga sent a clear and terse political message that he is definitely going to seek LDP’s presidential nomination in 2007.
This carefully timed pronouncement was especially targeted at Mr Kalonzo Musyoka. The LDP rank-and-file, which used to vote for Mr Musyoka in opinion polls, has now been informed that Musyoka is not the official LDP flag-bearer in 2007. He will merely be one of the presidential nominees. The next opinion poll is likely to confirm that LDP and Raila have devalued Musyoka.
Many of us had advised Mr Musyoka that it was just a matter of time before Mr Odinga disowned him. Mr Odinga's strategy was to get Mr Musyoka to sufficiently antagonise Narc and the presidency before withholding the affirmation
Since Mr Odinga is around 60 and ageing, he has decided he must have a go at the presidency in 2007 as he did in 1997. Time is running out; it waits for no king.
Disaster waiting to happen
He has been advised that the ODM momentum should now serve him well. Whether he can win is another proposition, which only history will judge.
Factually, Mr Odinga controls the LDP. If he is a presidential aspirant under the LDP banner, it is unlikely that he can lose the nomination. Therefore, the way he has treated Mr Musyoka was a disaster waiting to happen. This is sluice-gate or slow puncture betrayal.
Mr Musyoka, the born-again Christian, naively trusted Mr Odinga and the LDP without much reflection and analysis of the political quicksand he was getting into.
He virtually has no committed think-tank, no political money capable of supporting a presidential candidature (hence the Kalonzo Musyoka Foundation), and no national network to mobilise support except that which he inherited from the late Kamba political supremo, Mr Mulu Mutisya.
Interestingly, even the senior Kamba politicians and businessmen associated with former President Moi have not yet fully supported Musyoka since Moi has not signalled them to do so.
Mr Musyoka is yet to mobilise the national consensus that Mzee Kenyatta, Mr Moi and President Kibaki developed painfully – block by block – on their way up the political ladder.
Unfortunately, both Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka are used to attacking and alienating potential support. They have not been adept at bridge building. When people said Moi was a push-over or Kibaki was a fence-sitter, bridge-building was confused for weakness.
A proper reading of the current LDP politics reveals that Luo, Luhya and Coast LDP leadership is skeptical about Mr Musyoka. He was recently criticised for not voting against the Constitution in Parliament. He is bad-mouthed for being extremely ambitious and arrogant, but a poor organiser who waits for others to do the tedious political spadework before he reaps a bumper harvest.
His colleagues say his work-ethic is poor. He has further been associated with looking down upon mid- and low-level LDP leadership.
Recently, the LDP queried why in Mr Musyoka's Mwingi North Constituency, 6,780 voters rejected his ‘No’ position.
He has also been labelled as anti-democratic and anti-development. However, he has not been associated with any serious corruption scandal despite the fact that under Moi, he had ample opportunity to pilfer public resources.
Methodically destroyed
Mr Odinga's strategy was to suck Mr Musyoka deep into controversy, thereby ensuring his exit route became a cul-de-sac.
If Mr Musyoka was methodically destroyed, then Mr Odinga's chances at the presidency would be enhanced. Only the Musalia Mudavadi factor would now have to be dealt with.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is a non-starter unless it concedes that Kanu will supply the presidential candidate. Will the political siamese twins be Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Gideon Moi? (Mr William Ruto is a proxy for Gideon although he is beginning to think he can be his own man).
Both Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi have been advised to return to Kanu if each of them want to be considered as a possible presidential aspirant. Can they eat humble pie? Can they allow Mzee Moi to have the last laugh?
Be that as it may, aspirants under the Kanu banner will have to answer the six-million-dollar question: In 2007, will Kenyans be ready to vote Kanu back into power? When all is said and done, I suspect they are not yet ready to embrace Kanu. What options then does Mr Musyoka have?
Kalonzo's political options
He can wait and vie in LDP nominations and lose. The Kamba may afterwards not support him if he establishes or joins another party at a late hour. They will know his rebound presidential bid has no serious chances of success.
He can rejoin Kanu and try his luck from there. However, former President Moi has been known to doubt whether Mr Musyoka has presidential stature. Indeed one of the reasons he left Kanu to join the Rainbow faction was that he knew there wasn’t much love lost between Moi and himself.
A return to Kanu, therefore, is likely to be a political boomerang, even political suicide, for Mr Musyoka.
Mr Musyoka can create his own party whose base is from his ethnic community.
Previously there has been mention of Rainbow Development Party (RDP), and National Labour Party (NLP). He can hope to capture a large number of the Kamba region parliamentary and civic seats. He can then use the numbers to negotiate with whoever wins in 2007.
This strategy has the drawback that a significant population in Ukambani may abandon him when they realise he has scant support from elsewhere.
Although Kambas can be headstrong when they choose, they don’t like identifying too long with the opposition. If then they realise he cannot deliver the presidency, they may reassess their relationship with him and so may some of the MPs and councillors currently supporting him.
He and his team have the option of returning to Narc. In politics, there are no permanent enemies. In every political thoroughfare and its troubled waters, there is always a bridge.
He may come to appreciate that his political interest and that of his community are better served in Narc. He needs to consult elders from the four Kamba districts, the diaspora and other honest national leaders whom he works closely with.
Prof Kibwana is the minister for Environment