Post by Ed on Sept 20, 2006 21:13:34 GMT 3
Where does Raila stand in the ODM top contest?
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By Imre Loefler
Although the Government will do everything to make sure that the playing field is not level for next year's election, there is a possibility that the Opposition could win if it presents one presidential candidate chosen through credible and sober assessment.
Many Kenyans are not enamoured with President Kibaki and the Government and as the latter prepares for elections, disillusionment will turn to disgust. What happened in the past few weeks at the Coast is a foretaste: Whether it concerns land, the trillion investment in Lamu, promise of schools, roads and airports, it is all meant to buy support in the province. Other provinces will be treated similarly.
The biggest victim will be the environment, particularly forests. If the first stage of electioneering consists of promises and all manner of legal battles with the Opposition, the second will see massive deployment of State resources, the compulsory engagement of the Civil Service — the provincial administration in particular — and hauling to court prominent Opposition figures on corruption charges.
The third and final stage will be vote buying and rigging. Kenyans have experienced this and although they are offended and desperate, they will tolerate many such practices, arguing that they are better off than the Congolese, Burundians, Somalis and Ethiopians.
Kenyans also know that if they re-elect Kibaki, the status quo will continue: Corruption, whitewash and arbitrariness. Goldenberg and Anglo-Leasing will never be concluded. The money will have disappeared for good and more scams will follow.
Perceptive people will rightly fear that with the rulers more confident, the "democratic space" gained in 2002, together with relative Press freedom, will come under threat. Those who put their faith in economic growth should contemplate the re-emergence of interventionism, the curse of the country's economic history.
Apart from the group of tribal voters, for whom biology is the only guideline in decision making, the rest of Kenyans, who are now probably the majority, will decide whether they want to live with these evils for more five years or there is someone else who leads a group of people determined and capable to finally deliver the changes for which the nation has hoped for so long and was cheated of in 2002.
The equation — to choose between the known (the government) and the expected, the desired and hoped for, is the essence of all elections. ODM-Kenya, amorphous and untidy as it is, has the potential to defeat Kibaki's government if it can solve its leadership problems by being in tune with the expectations of the people.
Presently, the propaganda unleashed by Mr Raila Odinga and his admirers recommending him for presidency seems to preoccupy many. Even outside the group of those who obey biological reflexes, there are people who think that Odinga would be a guarantor of change, the liberator, true democrat.
He has remarkable political talents. Odinga has ambition and without ambition one should not try to govern. He, however, lacks charisma and tries to substitute flamboyance for it. We do not need charisma — charismatic leaders have destroyed much of the world and the flamboyance can be overlooked if it is balanced by solidity, reliability, trustworthiness and credibility.
The central question today, a year before crucial elections in Kenya, is: In the opinion of voters, is Odinga trustworthy and can he be relied upon not to turn coat if elected? There are indications that Odinga is crafty, perhaps too crafty by half. The perception that he may justify questionable means as far as the end justifies the means disturbs many.
Some people think that lately, his mastery of politics has not been as brilliant as it used to be. The biography, even the website, selective and smudging focus, may have been mistakes.
But the way Senator Barack Obama's show was enacted was a great public relation success only to totter after the announcement that Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo are close friends of the man who so obviously wants to be our head of State.
The two are presidential power enhancers (Museveni a life presidency candidate) and known for the tricks Kenyans certainly do not want.
The Press refers to the self-proposed ODM-Kenya candidates the "Big Six". A motley lot they are. Voters should perform tests on and mark and eliminate them accordingly.
There is the corruption test, probably all are tainted. But who is the most corrupt and who the least?
Who has more experience and has done the best in public office? There are tests on decency, intelligence, knowledge, countrywide acceptance and trustworthiness.
When the marking is finally done, where will Odinga stand?
--------------------------------------------------------------
By Imre Loefler
Although the Government will do everything to make sure that the playing field is not level for next year's election, there is a possibility that the Opposition could win if it presents one presidential candidate chosen through credible and sober assessment.
Many Kenyans are not enamoured with President Kibaki and the Government and as the latter prepares for elections, disillusionment will turn to disgust. What happened in the past few weeks at the Coast is a foretaste: Whether it concerns land, the trillion investment in Lamu, promise of schools, roads and airports, it is all meant to buy support in the province. Other provinces will be treated similarly.
The biggest victim will be the environment, particularly forests. If the first stage of electioneering consists of promises and all manner of legal battles with the Opposition, the second will see massive deployment of State resources, the compulsory engagement of the Civil Service — the provincial administration in particular — and hauling to court prominent Opposition figures on corruption charges.
The third and final stage will be vote buying and rigging. Kenyans have experienced this and although they are offended and desperate, they will tolerate many such practices, arguing that they are better off than the Congolese, Burundians, Somalis and Ethiopians.
Kenyans also know that if they re-elect Kibaki, the status quo will continue: Corruption, whitewash and arbitrariness. Goldenberg and Anglo-Leasing will never be concluded. The money will have disappeared for good and more scams will follow.
Perceptive people will rightly fear that with the rulers more confident, the "democratic space" gained in 2002, together with relative Press freedom, will come under threat. Those who put their faith in economic growth should contemplate the re-emergence of interventionism, the curse of the country's economic history.
Apart from the group of tribal voters, for whom biology is the only guideline in decision making, the rest of Kenyans, who are now probably the majority, will decide whether they want to live with these evils for more five years or there is someone else who leads a group of people determined and capable to finally deliver the changes for which the nation has hoped for so long and was cheated of in 2002.
The equation — to choose between the known (the government) and the expected, the desired and hoped for, is the essence of all elections. ODM-Kenya, amorphous and untidy as it is, has the potential to defeat Kibaki's government if it can solve its leadership problems by being in tune with the expectations of the people.
Presently, the propaganda unleashed by Mr Raila Odinga and his admirers recommending him for presidency seems to preoccupy many. Even outside the group of those who obey biological reflexes, there are people who think that Odinga would be a guarantor of change, the liberator, true democrat.
He has remarkable political talents. Odinga has ambition and without ambition one should not try to govern. He, however, lacks charisma and tries to substitute flamboyance for it. We do not need charisma — charismatic leaders have destroyed much of the world and the flamboyance can be overlooked if it is balanced by solidity, reliability, trustworthiness and credibility.
The central question today, a year before crucial elections in Kenya, is: In the opinion of voters, is Odinga trustworthy and can he be relied upon not to turn coat if elected? There are indications that Odinga is crafty, perhaps too crafty by half. The perception that he may justify questionable means as far as the end justifies the means disturbs many.
Some people think that lately, his mastery of politics has not been as brilliant as it used to be. The biography, even the website, selective and smudging focus, may have been mistakes.
But the way Senator Barack Obama's show was enacted was a great public relation success only to totter after the announcement that Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo are close friends of the man who so obviously wants to be our head of State.
The two are presidential power enhancers (Museveni a life presidency candidate) and known for the tricks Kenyans certainly do not want.
The Press refers to the self-proposed ODM-Kenya candidates the "Big Six". A motley lot they are. Voters should perform tests on and mark and eliminate them accordingly.
There is the corruption test, probably all are tainted. But who is the most corrupt and who the least?
Who has more experience and has done the best in public office? There are tests on decency, intelligence, knowledge, countrywide acceptance and trustworthiness.
When the marking is finally done, where will Odinga stand?