Post by sang on Feb 19, 2010 23:00:22 GMT 3
Raila's Political Life Is In Grave Danger
Wednesday, February 17, 2010 1:14 AM
Kenyan history keeps repeating itself like a friggin' broken record. Only that the record is a reprise of the old one with the band leaders being the sons of the old band leaders (See the attached picture). I don't know whether to dance or condemn the d**n record into the non-recyclable dustbin of history.
Jameni, why are you splitting hairs as to what supervision means? The NARA Accord does not need any interpretation. It's as clear as the ink that was used to type it. ODM was shafted. Period. The thing says that either principal MUST consult with the other one before taking such a drastic action, and even then, the president has the final say. He appoints the PM, and therefore he can also fire him indirectly by garnering a majority in parliament to pass a vote of no confidence. As we speak, he has the majority, including the piqued RVP MPs, and he can send the PM packing, and there is nothing he (the PM) can do about it.
The PM, on the other hand, cannot return the favor.
That ought to tell you who the boss is. Clearly, Rt HON PM RAO either ignored this part, due to poor legal advice, or he simply did not read the NARA Accord. In short, just as ODM got shafted recently in Naivasha, it got shafted at Serena. It's obvious that the rug has been pulled right under its leadership with none of them seemingly aware of the game they have been played. Where was the vaunted ODM think tank? How does the highfalutin legal verbiage in the press going to change anything? The truth is: NOTHING! We, the people, will not change NARA as it stands now. So, it makes little sense to appeal to us for help through the press. You signed the accord, so you live by it.
On the same note, the truth is, while the bigger power war pits Deputy PM Uhuru against Rt Hon PM RAO, (remember the band leaders?), the battleground is at ODM. As a result, the ODM leadership itself has been scattered like headless chickens. I always cheer for Brazil, not because I love the country, but because its team plays beautiful soccer. PNU has played beautiful soccer on the Soccer Fan-in-Chief himself. Rt. Hon PM RAO has yet to understand the viciousness of Kenya's Realpolitik. Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki did not become president by playing to the Utopian politics of the civil society. They knew how to usurp power through complex chess moves, rather than some high ideals. News for you: That's how Kenya is. (And this is not necessarily an endorsement) .
Hon Ruto and RT Hon PM RAO should have seen this coming. If they had the interest of their party at heart, they should have put out the fire a long time ago. Instead, we were treated to continuous verbal diarrhea from their minions.
What was almost an assured Raila win in the next elections now seems to be a mirage. In my opinion, if things continue the way they are, ODM, and by extension RT Hon PM, may as well forget the presidency. Granted, two years is an eon in politics, but anyone who believes that ODM will get support from outside its traditional strongholds is deluding himself. PNU, to its credit, learnt from its 2007 mistakes, and even though they are far from being a coherent party, they know what they want and what buttons to press for ODM to run helter-skelter. In short, as things stand now, they are sitting tight, with their two front-runners for the presidency, (Kibaki and/or Uhuru), waiting for the new constitution to pass. ODM will not survive a PNU onslaught without the constituency that it had welded together in the last election, and the biggest loser will be Rt Hon PM RAO (Remember 1997?). His promise to go back to Kibera may actually come true. Mandazi anyone?
This is my advice to him. Go back and apologize to President Kibaki. Say you were misled. Fire your current legal adviser(s) and bring back Hon. Anyang Nyong'o. It's more about brain than braun. Then go back to the ODM governing council, (or whatever they call it), and seek reconciliation with Ruto, Balala, and all the ODM leaders whose toes you stepped on in your rush to be PM.
Advice to Ruto? Nobody, including you, is indispensable in the RVP, the Mau populism notwithstanding. If in doubt, ask Moi and his sons. Take it slow and go back and reconcile with the PM. Then re-build the party to its former strength. Remember your talks about building institutional capacity? Political parties are institutions that badly need building. That's the only way the modern electorate competes for power.
And my advice to PNU. Keep hammering. It's your democratic right.
Sang.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010 1:14 AM
Kenyan history keeps repeating itself like a friggin' broken record. Only that the record is a reprise of the old one with the band leaders being the sons of the old band leaders (See the attached picture). I don't know whether to dance or condemn the d**n record into the non-recyclable dustbin of history.
Jameni, why are you splitting hairs as to what supervision means? The NARA Accord does not need any interpretation. It's as clear as the ink that was used to type it. ODM was shafted. Period. The thing says that either principal MUST consult with the other one before taking such a drastic action, and even then, the president has the final say. He appoints the PM, and therefore he can also fire him indirectly by garnering a majority in parliament to pass a vote of no confidence. As we speak, he has the majority, including the piqued RVP MPs, and he can send the PM packing, and there is nothing he (the PM) can do about it.
The PM, on the other hand, cannot return the favor.
That ought to tell you who the boss is. Clearly, Rt HON PM RAO either ignored this part, due to poor legal advice, or he simply did not read the NARA Accord. In short, just as ODM got shafted recently in Naivasha, it got shafted at Serena. It's obvious that the rug has been pulled right under its leadership with none of them seemingly aware of the game they have been played. Where was the vaunted ODM think tank? How does the highfalutin legal verbiage in the press going to change anything? The truth is: NOTHING! We, the people, will not change NARA as it stands now. So, it makes little sense to appeal to us for help through the press. You signed the accord, so you live by it.
On the same note, the truth is, while the bigger power war pits Deputy PM Uhuru against Rt Hon PM RAO, (remember the band leaders?), the battleground is at ODM. As a result, the ODM leadership itself has been scattered like headless chickens. I always cheer for Brazil, not because I love the country, but because its team plays beautiful soccer. PNU has played beautiful soccer on the Soccer Fan-in-Chief himself. Rt. Hon PM RAO has yet to understand the viciousness of Kenya's Realpolitik. Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki did not become president by playing to the Utopian politics of the civil society. They knew how to usurp power through complex chess moves, rather than some high ideals. News for you: That's how Kenya is. (And this is not necessarily an endorsement) .
Hon Ruto and RT Hon PM RAO should have seen this coming. If they had the interest of their party at heart, they should have put out the fire a long time ago. Instead, we were treated to continuous verbal diarrhea from their minions.
What was almost an assured Raila win in the next elections now seems to be a mirage. In my opinion, if things continue the way they are, ODM, and by extension RT Hon PM, may as well forget the presidency. Granted, two years is an eon in politics, but anyone who believes that ODM will get support from outside its traditional strongholds is deluding himself. PNU, to its credit, learnt from its 2007 mistakes, and even though they are far from being a coherent party, they know what they want and what buttons to press for ODM to run helter-skelter. In short, as things stand now, they are sitting tight, with their two front-runners for the presidency, (Kibaki and/or Uhuru), waiting for the new constitution to pass. ODM will not survive a PNU onslaught without the constituency that it had welded together in the last election, and the biggest loser will be Rt Hon PM RAO (Remember 1997?). His promise to go back to Kibera may actually come true. Mandazi anyone?
This is my advice to him. Go back and apologize to President Kibaki. Say you were misled. Fire your current legal adviser(s) and bring back Hon. Anyang Nyong'o. It's more about brain than braun. Then go back to the ODM governing council, (or whatever they call it), and seek reconciliation with Ruto, Balala, and all the ODM leaders whose toes you stepped on in your rush to be PM.
Advice to Ruto? Nobody, including you, is indispensable in the RVP, the Mau populism notwithstanding. If in doubt, ask Moi and his sons. Take it slow and go back and reconcile with the PM. Then re-build the party to its former strength. Remember your talks about building institutional capacity? Political parties are institutions that badly need building. That's the only way the modern electorate competes for power.
And my advice to PNU. Keep hammering. It's your democratic right.
Sang.